What politics is in Afghanistan?
What politics is in Afghanistan
Taliban Gains-Afghanistan’s Political Scenarios.
In the long run, however, the Afghan government’s best situation seems to restore a policy stalemate with the Taliban. The Taliban have started a flash offensive against Afghans, since most American forces left Afghanistan before September 11, taking over many districts and conducting psychological operations to persuade their rivals to yield. The Taliban strategy was very effective to Kabul’s dismay. The Taliban is advancing quickly while seizing outlying towns and villages and sending an unmistakable message that the group is invincible and fully able to keep the captured territories both to the Afghanistan government and to the western capitals.
What politics is the Afghan government playing?
Experts describe different possible scenarios, from total Taliban victory over Afghanistan to a provisional political deal or an impasse dividing the country into two power centers, one led by the Afghan government in Kabul and another led by the Taliban. The biggest scenario seems to be that the Taliban will probably take over the Afghan government because they are not ready to share power with the present government as well as key political players.
The Taliban are eager to take control of the government, and they have demonstrated that they are capable of overrunning the majority of the country in the last month, as seen by the fall of numerous districts. Afghan security forces have not shown “solid resistance” to the Taliban as the militant group has taken control of various areas across the nation. The Taliban will undoubtedly be less willing to discuss a political settlement with Kabul if they acquire control of areas with their own power and influence.
According to recent reports, numerous Afghan security forces have surrendered to the Taliban or fled to Tajikistan, as the emboldened armed organization has taken control of several border crossings with Iran, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. The Taliban recently took control of an Afghan border crossing with Pakistan, which has strong ties to the ideologically motivated armed group.
To gain the surrender of many Afghan forces, the Taliban utilized a variety of techniques, including promising that no Afghan troops would be killed and facilitating district councils made up of elders to negotiate the surrender of government forces. While many Afghans and non-Afghan security analysts believe the central government forces would be able to defeat the Taliban, there is little concrete evidence to support this claim. The possibility of a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan is described as “the worst-case scenario”, it will “lead to a protracted conflict and violence in Afghanistan, which will not be in the interests of both belligerent parties, neighboring countries, or the international community.” As a result, “countries like Russia, India, Iran, China, and Turkey [would] intervene and put pressure on all parties to return to the negotiating table to find a peaceful settlement to the country’s decades-long war,” according to the report.
What Politics is in Afghanistan, with or without Taliban ?
The first is a complete Taliban takeover, which is not a military takeover, but rather a political takeover. The Taliban is well aware that they will not be able to conquer Kabul by force. No one is going to let it happen. They may be stronger in the provinces and mountains, but they cannot militarily conquer the city. While the Taliban has “military force,” they must still go through a process of “extremely protracted negotiations to capture cities,” according to the report. – Member of the Atlantic Council
“Afghanistan’s future depends on Taliban rule; the question now appears to be which Taliban will lead the country. Whether it will be a Taliban that rules the country in an uncompromising manner or a Taliban that seeks to reach an agreement with other significant Afghan political players.” The development of a political accord between the Taliban and “neutral” Afghans who have “no affiliations” with the current Ashraf Ghani government might be the second scenario. According to him, the Taliban has already indicated that they may negotiate an arrangement with those “neutral” forces.
What politics is Hamdi Karzai doing?
“This is where Hamdi Karzai, the former President of Afghanistan, emerges as a potential kingmaker. Karzai’s influence in Kabul is perhaps larger than Ghani’s. Karzai has the ability to bring all sides of Afghanistan to the table. While Washington no longer likes Karzai, he has “very good regional relations” with Iran, Russia, and China. Karzai will also conduct his first visit to Pakistan in the coming days, a country that is critical in resolving the Afghan crisis.
Iranians and Pakistanis are attempting to put in place a political system based on regional consensus, in which prominent figures from northern Afghanistan, such as Rashid Dostum and Ahmad Massoud, and other powerful figures from the country’s western regions, such as Ismail Khan, could come together for a power-sharing agreement with the Taliban. If the agreement is reached, Ghani, the country’s president, and his top deputy will be excluded. A prospective leader who is “acceptable both to ordinary Afghans and the Taliban” may emerge from continuing conversations between the Taliban and “neutral” officials.
What politics is in Afghanistan on Returning to military stalemate?
The Taliban will most likely continue their onslaught against the Afghan government after Eid al-Adha (festival of sacrifice), an Islamic holiday, next week. The ceasefire will most likely be extended to a three-month-long ceasefire to resume negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban. However, due to its air dominance, Kabul is anticipated to “most certainly restrict the Taliban from making further advances.” This entire process will finally result in a “military stalemate,” with the Taliban realizing that “no military solution” exists.
We’ll just return to a phase where we alternate between groups and eventually discover the middle of territory division. Perhaps that will happen soon, but a political deadlock will keep Afghanistan divided in practice, if not in theory. While a military stalemate is not ideal, it is “better than the Taliban’s ultimate victory.” Without the support of the central government, the Taliban will have a tough time governing the areas they control. Much of rural Afghanistan is under Taliban control, whereas district centers are under government control – Afghan Analyst
For the past 20 years in Afghanistan, it’s been as though the government reigns during the day and the Taliban rule at night. “It’s possible we’ll go back to that.